Where the market is wrong on Southport v Hereford
Southport meet Hereford in the National League - North national league north - 6 at Haig Avenue, Southport.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors Southport on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Hereford at 53%; double chance reads Southport or draw 63%, Hereford or draw 67%.
Southport arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 9 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Scarborough Athletic, W 4-1 v Bedford Town, D 2-2 @ Hednesford Town, D 1-1 v Buxton.
Hereford are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Chester, W 3-0 @ Worksop Town, W 3-0 v Radcliffe, W 1-0 v Marine.
Southport hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Southport 5-1 Hereford.
The market prices SOU at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
