Where the market is wrong on Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Club Guarani
Club Sp. San Lorenzo meet Club Guarani in the Division Profesional - Clausura clausura - 2 at Estadio Gunther Vogel, San Lorenzo. The model makes Club Guarani the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 26% CLU, 34% draw, 41% CLU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Club Guarani, 43% against 33%. Attacking output favors Club Guarani on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 26%, over 2.5 goals around 23%. Draw no bet leans Club Guarani at 61%; double chance reads Club Sp. San Lorenzo or draw 59%, Club Guarani or draw 74%.
Club Sp. San Lorenzo arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Deportivo Recoleta, W 1-0 @ 2 de Mayo, D 0-0 v Sportivo Luqueno, W 1-0 v Olimpia.
Club Guarani are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Sportivo Luqueno, L 1-2 @ Deportivo Recoleta, W 1-0 v Sportivo Ameliano, D 0-0 @ Cerro Porteno.
The market prices CLU at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output