Mineros de Zacatecas v Tlaxcala

Mineros de Zacatecas meet Tlaxcala in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 2 at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba, Zacatecas. The model makes Mineros de Zacatecas the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% MIN, 29% draw, 33% TLA.

The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 40%. Attacking output favors Mineros de Zacatecas on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 63%. Draw no bet leans Mineros de Zacatecas at 53%; double chance reads Mineros de Zacatecas or draw 67%, Tlaxcala or draw 63%.

Mineros de Zacatecas arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 9 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Correcaminos Uat, L 0-4 @ Atletico San Luis, L 1-3 v FC Juarez, L 4-7 @ Leon.

Tlaxcala are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 v Leones Negros UDG, L 1-3 @ Puebla, D 2-2 v Venados FC, D 0-0 @ Monarcas.

Mineros de Zacatecas hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mineros de Zacatecas 4-1 Tlaxcala.

The market prices MIN at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Tlaxcala: a 6.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.