Where the market is wrong on Numancia v Guadalajara
Numancia meet Guadalajara in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 group 5 - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Numancia, 63% against 48%. Attacking output favors Guadalajara on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Numancia arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 7 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Guadalajara, D 0-0 @ SS Reyes, W 2-0 v A Madrid III, W 2-0 @ Atlético Paso.
Guadalajara are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Numancia, W 2-1 v RSD Alcalá, L 2-3 v Salamanca UDS, L 0-1 @ Marchamalo.
Guadalajara hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Numancia 1-0 Guadalajara.
The market prices NUM at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Guadalajara: a 8.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output