Where the market is wrong on Montana v Hebar 1918
Montana meet Hebar 1918 in the Second League regular season - 10 at Ogosta Stadium, Montana.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1407, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 34%. Attacking output favors Hebar 1918 on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.
Montana arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 1 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Chernomorets 1919 Burgas, L 0-5 v Hebar 1918, L 0-4 @ CSKA Sofia II, L 1-4 v Vihren.
Hebar 1918 are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 13 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Dobrudzha, W 5-0 @ Montana, W 4-1 v Etar Veliko Tarnovo, L 2-3 @ Spartak Pleven.
Montana hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Montana 0-5 Hebar 1918.
The market prices MON at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Hebar 1918: a 6.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 69 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
