Where the market is wrong on Celta Vigo v Athletic Club
Celta Vigo meet Athletic Club in the La Liga regular season - 3 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 45%. Attacking output favors Athletic Club on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.
Celta Vigo arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Athletic Club, L 1-2 v Osasuna, D 0-0 @ Valencia, D 1-1 @ Napoli.
Athletic Club are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Celta Vigo, L 0-2 @ Barcelona, L 1-3 v Sevilla, L 1-3 @ Zaragoza.
The market prices CEL at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Athletic Club: a 8.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 73 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
