Where the market is wrong on Barnsley v Stevenage
Barnsley meet Stevenage in the League One regular season - 5 at Oakwell, Barnsley.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 55%. Attacking output favors Barnsley on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Barnsley arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 v Stevenage, W 2-1 v Blackpool, W 3-1 @ Leyton Orient, W 3-2 v Crewe.
Stevenage are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Luton, W 5-1 @ Barnsley, D 0-0 @ Peterborough, D 2-2 v Doncaster.
The market prices BAR at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Stevenage: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
