Where the market is wrong on FC Rostov v Lokomotiv
FC Rostov meet Lokomotiv in the Cup group stage - 2 at Rostov Arena, Rostov.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors Lokomotiv on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans Lokomotiv at 55%; double chance reads FC Rostov or draw 63%, Lokomotiv or draw 69%.
FC Rostov arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Akhmat, W 1-0 v Lokomotiv, D 1-1 v Rubin, D 0-0 @ CSKA Moscow.
Lokomotiv are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ CSKA Moscow, L 0-1 @ FC Rostov, D 1-1 @ FC Orenburg, D 0-0 v Akron.
Lokomotiv hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Rostov 1-0 Lokomotiv.
The market prices FC at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Lokomotiv: a 8.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
