Where the market is wrong on Southampton v Millwall
Southampton meet Millwall in the Championship regular season - 3 at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton.
The baseline ratings are close, 1674 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Southampton, 74% against 57%. Attacking output favors Southampton on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.2 per match.
Southampton arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Birmingham, W 5-1 v Millwall, L 1-4 v West Ham, W 3-1 v Stoke City.
Millwall are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Southampton, W 1-0 @ Cambridge United, W 3-0 v Norwich, W 2-0 @ Bristol City.
Southampton hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Southampton 5-1 Millwall.
The market prices SOU at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
