Where the market is wrong on Millwall v Norwich
Millwall meet Norwich in the Championship regular season - 2 at The Den, London.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 57%. Attacking output favors Norwich on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 32%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Millwall at 52%; double chance reads Millwall or draw 68%, Norwich or draw 65%.
Millwall arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 8 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Cambridge United, W 3-0 v Norwich, W 2-0 @ Bristol City, D 1-1 @ QPR.
Norwich are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Cardiff, L 0-3 @ Millwall, L 1-2 v West Brom, W 4-1 v Milton Keynes Dons.
Norwich hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Millwall 3-0 Norwich.
The market prices MIL at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
