Where the market is wrong on Mixco v Aurora
Mixco meet Aurora in the Liga Nacional regular season - 9.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mixco, 45% against 28%. Attacking output favors Mixco on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.
Mixco arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Aurora, L 0-2 @ Deportivo San Pedro, D 1-1 v Comunicaciones, L 1-4 @ Xelajú.
Aurora are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Mixco, L 1-2 v Municipal, L 1-2 @ Antigua GFC, W 1-0 v Malacateco.
The market prices MIX at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on Aurora: a 14.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
