Where the market is wrong on Edinburgh City v Forfar Athletic
Edinburgh City meet Forfar Athletic in the League Two regular season - 5 at Meadowbank Sports Centre, Edinburgh.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Edinburgh City, 53% against 39%. Attacking output favors Edinburgh City on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Edinburgh City at 58%; double chance reads Edinburgh City or draw 70%, Forfar Athletic or draw 59%.
Edinburgh City arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Forfar Athletic, W 1-0 @ Hamilton Academical, W 1-0 v Annan Athletic, W 3-0 @ Dumbarton.
Forfar Athletic are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Edinburgh City, L 0-3 @ Clyde, W 3-0 v Stirling Albion, L 0-3 v Aberdeen U21.
Edinburgh City hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Edinburgh City 1-1 Forfar Athletic.
The market prices EDI at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Forfar Athletic: a 8.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
