Where the market is wrong on Sunderland v Arsenal
Sunderland meet Arsenal in the Premier League regular season - 4 at Stadium of Light, Sunderland.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 65%. Attacking output favors Arsenal on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Sunderland arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Fulham, L 1-2 @ Ipswich, W 2-1 v Rennes, W 2-0 @ Lens.
Arsenal are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Aston Villa, W 3-0 v Coventry, W 3-0 v Manchester City, D 1-1 v Como.
Arsenal hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland.
The market prices SUN at 14% implied. Our number sits apart on Sunderland: a 15.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
