Where the market is wrong on Dunfermline v Raith Rovers
Dunfermline meet Raith Rovers in the Championship regular season - 4 at East End Park, Dunfermline.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Raith Rovers, 65% against 53%. Attacking output favors Raith Rovers on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Raith Rovers at 56%; double chance reads Dunfermline or draw 62%, Raith Rovers or draw 70%.
Dunfermline arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Raith Rovers, L 0-2 @ Livingston, L 1-2 v Ross County, D 1-1 v Ayr Utd.
Raith Rovers are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Dunfermline, W 2-0 v Ayr Utd, W 2-1 @ Queen's Park, D 1-1 v Stenhousemuir.
The market prices DUN at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
