ST Mirren v Motherwell: the model read
ST Mirren meet Motherwell in the Premiership regular season - 4 at The SMISA Stadium, Paisley.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans ST Mirren, 57% against 43%. Attacking output favors ST Mirren on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.4 per match.
ST Mirren arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Motherwell, L 1-5 @ Rangers, W 1-0 v ST Johnstone, W 2-0 @ Falkirk.
Motherwell are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ ST Mirren, L 1-4 @ SC Freiburg, L 1-3 v SC Freiburg, L 0-1 @ Stenhousemuir.
Motherwell hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: ST Mirren 3-3 Motherwell.
The market prices ST at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on ST Mirren: a 2.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
