Garliava v Neptūną Klaipėda

Garliava meet Neptūną Klaipėda in the 1 Lyga regular season - 18. The model makes Garliava the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% GAR, 31% draw, 34% NEP.

The baseline ratings are close, 1528 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 60%. Attacking output favors Neptūną Klaipėda on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Garliava at 50%; double chance reads Garliava or draw 66%, Neptūną Klaipėda or draw 65%.

Garliava arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Jonava, L 0-1 v Minija, W 3-0 v Transinvest 2, L 1-2 @ Žalgiris II.

Neptūną Klaipėda are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v FA Šiauliai II, D 2-2 @ Transinvest 2, L 0-1 @ Dainava, W 2-1 v Kauno Žalgiris II.

Neptūną Klaipėda hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Neptūną Klaipėda 0-3 Garliava.

The market prices GAR at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.