Where the market is wrong on Mes Kerman v Navad Urmia
Mes Kerman meet Navad Urmia in the Azadegan League regular season - 34. The model makes Mes Kerman the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 42% MES, 37% draw, 21% NAV.
The baseline ratings are close, 1468 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mes Kerman, 50% against 17%. Attacking output favors Mes Kerman on expected goals, 0.7 to 0.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 11%, over 2.5 goals around 11%. Draw no bet leans Mes Kerman at 67%; double chance reads Mes Kerman or draw 79%, Navad Urmia or draw 58%.
Mes Kerman arrive patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Sanat Naft, D 0-0 v Naft Bandar Abbas, D 1-1 @ Shahrdari Noshahr, D 1-1 v Pars Jonoubi JAM.
Navad Urmia are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 1 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Saipa, L 1-4 v Sanat Naft, L 0-2 @ Pars Jonoubi JAM, L 0-2 v Naft Bandar Abbas.
Mes Kerman hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 6 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Navad Urmia 1-1 Mes Kerman.
The market prices MES at 71% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 14.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
