Where the market is wrong on Heracles v Vitesse
Heracles meet Vitesse in the Eerste Divisie regular season - 8 at Polman Stadion, Armello.
The baseline ratings are close, 1528 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 57%. Attacking output favors Heracles on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Heracles arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 13 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Vitesse, L 0-1 @ Almere City FC, W 3-2 v Jong AZ, W 5-0 v De Graafschap.
Vitesse are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Heracles, W 3-1 v Jong PSV U21, L 0-1 @ Roda, W 2-1 v FC OSS.
Vitesse hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Heracles 2-0 Vitesse.
The market prices HER at 62% implied. Our number sits apart on Vitesse: a 24.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
