Levski Sofia v Septemvri Sofia

Levski Sofia meet Septemvri Sofia in the First League regular season - 3 at Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia. The model makes Levski Sofia the most likely outcome at 49%, with the full read 49% LEV, 30% draw, 21% SEP.

Levski Sofia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1512. Recent form leans Levski Sofia, 80% against 53%. Attacking output favors Levski Sofia on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 43%. Draw no bet leans Levski Sofia at 70%; double chance reads Levski Sofia or draw 79%, Septemvri Sofia or draw 51%.

Levski Sofia arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Lokomotiv Sofia, W 1-0 v Universitatea Craiova, W 2-1 v Dunav Ruse, W 4-0 v Borac Banja Luka.

Septemvri Sofia are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Lokomotiv Plovdiv, D 1-1 v Arda Kardzhali, L 0-1 @ Ludogorets, W 2-1 v Hebar 1918.

Levski Sofia hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Levski Sofia 7-0 Septemvri Sofia.

The market prices LEV at 77% implied. Our number sits apart on Septemvri Sofia: a 14.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.