Where the market is wrong on Club Tijuana v Leon
Club Tijuana meet Leon in the Liga MX apertura - 2 at Estadio Caliente, Tijuana. The model makes Club Tijuana the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 41% CLU, 29% draw, 30% LEO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1492, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Club Tijuana, 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors Leon on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans Club Tijuana at 58%; double chance reads Club Tijuana or draw 70%, Leon or draw 59%.
Club Tijuana arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Tigres UANL, D 2-2 v El Salvador, W 2-1 @ San Jose Earthquakes, D 0-0 @ Guadalajara Chivas.
Leon are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 16 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Atlas, W 4-2 v Tapatío, W 7-4 v Mineros de Zacatecas, L 1-4 @ Toluca.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Leon 0-3 Club Tijuana.
The market prices CLU at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
