Where the market is wrong on Fortuna Düsseldorf v SC Freiburg
Fortuna Düsseldorf meet SC Freiburg in the DFB Pokal round of 64 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Dusseldorf.
SC Freiburg rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1500. Recent form leans SC Freiburg, 68% against 45%. Attacking output favors SC Freiburg on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 81%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans SC Freiburg at 59%; double chance reads Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw 57%, SC Freiburg or draw 70%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 v SC Freiburg, L 0-2 v Hoffenheim II, L 1-2 @ Waldhof Mannheim, W 2-1 v Borussia Dortmund.
SC Freiburg are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 17 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Motherwell, W 5-1 @ Fortuna Düsseldorf, W 3-1 @ Motherwell, W 3-0 v Crystal Palace.
SC Freiburg hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-5 SC Freiburg.
The market prices FOR at 12% implied. Our number sits apart on Fortuna Düsseldorf: a 17.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
