Where the market is wrong on Cagliari v Lecce
Cagliari meet Lecce in the Serie A regular season - 3 at Unipol Domus, Cagliari.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 48%. Attacking output favors Lecce on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Cagliari arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Atalanta, W 1-0 v Lecce, L 1-2 v Hellas Verona, L 0-1 v Inter.
Lecce are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Monza, L 0-1 @ Cagliari, L 0-4 v AS Roma, W 2-0 @ Venezia.
The market prices CAG at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Lecce: a 7.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
