Philippines v Thailand: the model read
Philippines meet Thailand in the ASEAN Championship group stage - 4 at New Clark City Athletics Stadium, Capas. The model makes Thailand the most likely outcome at 42%, with the full read 30% PHI, 28% draw, 42% THA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Thailand, 70% against 60%. Attacking output favors Thailand on expected goals, 2.4 to 2.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 74%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans Thailand at 58%; double chance reads Philippines or draw 58%, Thailand or draw 70%.
Philippines arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 14 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Myanmar, W 5-1 v Myanmar, W 5-1 v Guam, D 1-1 @ Tajikistan.
Thailand are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 13 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ Laos, D 0-0 @ China, D 2-2 v Kuwait, W 2-1 v Turkmenistan.
Thailand hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Thailand 3-1 Philippines.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
