Vasco DA Gama v Independiente Medellin

Vasco DA Gama meet Independiente Medellin in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana round of 32. The model makes Independiente Medellin the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 32% VAS, 31% draw, 38% IND.

The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1577, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Independiente Medellin, 61% against 45%. Attacking output favors Independiente Medellin on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Independiente Medellin at 55%; double chance reads Vasco DA Gama or draw 62%, Independiente Medellin or draw 68%.

Vasco DA Gama arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Mirassol, D 2-2 @ Independiente Medellin, L 0-1 @ Vitoria, L 0-1 v Atletico-MG.

Independiente Medellin are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Deportivo Pasto, D 2-2 v Vasco DA Gama, W 2-1 v Cucuta, D 1-1 @ Leones FC.

Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Independiente Medellin 2-2 Vasco DA Gama.

The market prices VAS at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Independiente Medellin: a 20.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.