Motril v Arenas Armilla: the model read
Motril meet Arenas Armilla in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 final. The model makes Motril the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% MOT, 32% draw, 29% ARE.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 57%. Attacking output favors Motril on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Motril at 57%; double chance reads Motril or draw 71%, Arenas Armilla or draw 61%.
Motril arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Arenas Armilla, L 0-1 @ Arenas Armilla, D 0-0 v Churriana Vega, D 1-1 @ Churriana Vega.
Arenas Armilla are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 2-5 @ Peña Deportiva, D 1-1 v Peña Deportiva, D 1-1 @ Motril, W 1-0 v Motril.
Motril hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Motril 1-1 Arenas Armilla.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
