SC Paderborn 07 won the Bundesliga final 2-1 against VfL Wolfsburg, a result that the underlying numbers showed was thoroughly deserved. The Lemeister model had made Paderborn a marginal 44 per cent favourite to win, and that projection was vindicated by a dominant display built on overwhelming possession and a relentless volume of attacks. The match was ultimately decided by Paderborn’s control of the midfield and the final third, where they generated 39 total shots to Wolfsburg’s eight, and 10 shots on target to the visitors’ three, while also holding 67 per cent of the ball.
Wolfsburg struck first in the third minute through D. Pejcinovic, assisted by A. Daghim, catching the hosts cold. That early goal was the visitors’ only moment of attacking fluency, and it came against the run of play as the first half wore on. Paderborn equalised in the 38th minute when F. Bilbija scored, assisted by C. Brackelmann. The equaliser was the product of sustained pressure that began with a Wolfsburg red card. Joakim Mæhle received a second yellow card on 14 minutes, having been booked in the 11th minute, reducing Wolfsburg to ten men. That dismissal fundamentally altered the contest, and Paderborn’s numerical advantage allowed them to dictate every phase of the match from that point.
The second half was a prolonged siege. Paderborn attempted 27 shots from inside the box and 12 from outside, while Wolfsburg managed only five and three respectively. The hosts also earned 19 corner kicks to Wolfsburg’s two, and their passing accuracy of 85 per cent from 659 passes reflected the control they exerted. Wolfsburg, with only 33 per cent possession and 335 passes completed at 74 per cent accuracy, were forced into a defensive rearguard. Kamil Grabara made six saves for Wolfsburg, including several from close range, but the pressure was eventually converted into a winning goal in the 100th minute. L. Curda scored, assisted by S. Michel, to give Paderborn the lead in extra time. The goal was the logical outcome of the dominance.
The player ratings reflected Paderborn’s influence. Laurin Curda, the goalscorer, earned the highest match rating of 8.9, underlining his impact on the final result. Calvin Brackelmann, who provided the assist for the equaliser, was rated 8.3, and Mattes Hansen also stood out with an 8.2. For Wolfsburg, Denis Vavro and Kamil Grabara each received 7.9 and 7.7 respectively, indicating they were among the few visitors to perform individually, though their efforts were not enough to stem the tide. Niklas Mohr of Paderborn was also noted with a 7.7. The disciplinary record told its own story: Wolfsburg collected six yellow cards and one red, while Paderborn had three yellows, reflecting the visitors’ frustration and the pressure they were under.
The result means Paderborn win the Bundesliga final, and the data shows it was anything but a fluke. Their 44 per cent pre-match probability from the Lemeister model was a fair assessment of the likely outcome given the disparity in performance, and the final scoreline of 2-1 matched the model’s projected line. For Wolfsburg, a promising early goal and a 7.9 rating for Denis Vavro were consolations, but the game was decided by the red card and Paderborn’s ruthless, relentless attacking approach.
