Teramo won the Serie D Girone F final 3-1 against Notaresco, a result the Lemeister model had slightly favoured. The model gave the hosts a 40 per cent win probability against Notaresco's 29 per cent, with a draw rated at 31 per cent. The composite nature of the victory, spread across three different scorers in G. Carpani, M. Pietrantonio and M. Njambe, underscored a home side that was clinical with its opportunities across both halves.
The scoring began early. G. Carpani put Teramo ahead in the sixth minute, a goal that gave the hosts an immediate foothold. The lead was doubled in the 23rd minute when M. Pietrantonio found the net. Both goals were normal goals and unassisted according to the data. By the midway point of the first half, Teramo had established a two-goal buffer that the home side would not relinquish for the remaining 67 minutes of the match.
Notaresco pulled a goal back through A. Arrigoni in the 60th minute, reducing the deficit to one goal and briefly injecting tension into the contest. The visitors had 28 minutes to find an equaliser, but any hope of a comeback was extinguished eight minutes later. In the 68th minute, M. Njambe restored Teramo's two-goal cushion with another normal, unassisted goal. The rapid response to Arrigoni's strike was decisive, ensuring the home side never had to defend a narrow lead for a prolonged period.
The match featured no recorded statistical data for possession, shots, shots on target, expected goals, passing, corners, saves or fouls. This leaves the four goals and the single disciplinary event as the only quantitative measures available for analysis. Without underlying metrics such as shot volume or territory, the narrative of the match is necessarily limited to the timing and distribution of the goals themselves. The Lemeister model's projection of a narrow home advantage (one projected goal for Teramo, zero for Notaresco) proved conservative, as the hosts exceeded that projection by two goals while the visitors managed one.
Teramo finished the match with a red card in the 92nd minute. By then the result was already settled, with the home side leading 3-1 and only stoppage time remaining. The sending off did not alter the outcome, though it will mean a suspension for the player concerned at the start of the next phase of the season. There were no other cards or substitutions recorded in the data, meaning the match was contested by the same 22 players from first whistle to last, with only that single disciplinary interruption.
Among the named players, Carpani's sixth-minute opener set the tone and gave Teramo the platform from which they never looked back. Pietrantonio doubled that advantage with a strike just before the midway point of the first half. Njambe's goal in the 68th minute effectively ended any realistic prospect of a Notaresco comeback. For the visitors, Arrigoni provided the only moment of hope when he pulled one back on the hour mark, but the absence of an assist or any further quantitative contribution from his teammates left him isolated in the scoring column.
The result means Teramo win the Serie D Girone F title and take significant momentum into any potential promotion play-offs that may follow. Notaresco, having fought back to 2-1 through Arrigoni, will regret conceding a third goal so quickly after halving the deficit. The Lemeister model's prediction of a home victory was borne out, though the 40 per cent probability reflected a contest that was less than a certainty on paper. On the data available, Teramo were never behind across the 90 minutes, scored at three different intervals and always looked in control of the final outcome.
