Fortaleza EC v Sport Recife: the model read
Fortaleza EC meet Sport Recife in the Copa do Nordeste semi-finals at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Fortaleza. The model makes Fortaleza EC the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% FOR, 33% draw, 32% SPO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 55%. Attacking output favors Fortaleza EC on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 26%. Draw no bet leans Fortaleza EC at 52%; double chance reads Fortaleza EC or draw 68%, Sport Recife or draw 66%.
Fortaleza EC arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Vila Nova, W 1-0 v Novorizontino, L 0-1 @ Atletico Goianiense, W 2-0 v Ponte Preta.
Sport Recife are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Cuiaba, D 1-1 @ Goias, D 2-2 v Operario-PR, D 3-3 v Botafogo SP.
Fortaleza EC hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fortaleza EC 2-1 Sport Recife.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
