Celtic won the FA Cup final 3-1 at Hampden Park, a result that was ultimately decided by a dominant first-half display in which they scored twice from 70 per cent possession. The Lemeister model had projected a narrow 2-1 home win and gave Celtic a 36 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, making the eventual margin of victory consistent with the data's pre-match read. The home side's control of the ball, sustained at 70 per cent overall, allowed them to dictate the tempo and limit the opposition's attacking opportunities, a pattern clearly visible in the shot counts.
The scoring began in the 19th minute when D. Maeda finished a move started by A. Johnston. Celtic doubled their advantage in the 36th minute, A. Engels converting from C. McGregor's assist. By half-time, Celtic had created three of their five shots on target, while Dunfermline had managed only one shot on goal before the break. The early goals created a deficit that the underdogs struggled to overcome, especially given their limited share of the ball. Dunfermline's only shot in the opening period was one of their three on target overall, but it did not find the net.
K. Iheanacho added a third goal in the 73rd minute, assisted by B. Nygren, effectively sealing the contest. Dunfermline's J. Cooper pulled one back in the 80th minute, his unassisted strike bringing the score to 3-1. The three goals from Celtic came from a total of seven shots on and off target, while Dunfermline registered seven shots overall, with only three finding the target. The data shows that despite conceding, Celtic's defensive structure, anchored by Auston Trusty who received a yellow card in the 53rd minute, held firm against Dunfermline's sporadic attacks.
Possession statistics underline the nature of the contest: Celtic had 70 per cent of the ball, earning three corner kicks to Dunfermline's two. The passing game was one-sided, with the champions completing significantly more passes in the opposition half. Despite the territorial dominance, the game was not without its discipline issues. Charlie Gilmour of Dunfermline was booked in the 40th minute, and Trusty received his yellow card in the 53rd minute. No red cards were issued, and both sides committed a similar number of fouls, Celtic with eight and Dunfermline with seven.
The shot data reveals the gap in quality of chances. Celtic placed all five of their shots on target, with none missing the goal, while Dunfermline had three on target from seven attempts, with four off target and two blocked. Celtic also had two blocked shots, suggesting their build-up play was largely effective in creating clear sight of goal. The home side's expected goals, though not provided in the match facts, would likely reflect the superior quality of Celtic's chances given the shot and possession differential. Dunfermline's four shots off target indicate a lower conversion rate from less threatening positions, contributing to their inability to mount a sustained comeback after Cooper's 80th-minute goal.
The result gives Celtic the FA Cup trophy, adding to their silverware for the season. For Dunfermline, reaching the final and scoring a late consolation represents a significant achievement, but the data showed them outplayed in the key metrics. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a home win with a 36 per cent probability proved accurate, with the actual scoreline matching the projected 2-1 home win before Iheanacho's late strike pushed the margin to 3-1. The 70 per cent possession and five shots on target against three for the opposition confirm that Celtic's control of the match was comprehensive, even if the final scoreflattered the underdogs slightly through Cooper's late goal.
