Defensor Sporting v Progreso: the model read
Defensor Sporting meet Progreso in the Primera División - Apertura apertura - 13 at Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% DEF, 36% draw, 30% PRO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Defensor Sporting, 40% against 30%. Attacking output favors Progreso on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 20%, over 2.5 goals around 12%. Draw no bet leans Defensor Sporting at 53%; double chance reads Defensor Sporting or draw 70%, Progreso or draw 66%.
Defensor Sporting arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Cerro Largo, L 0-2 @ Cruzeiro, D 1-1 v Boston River, D 0-0 @ Racing Montevideo.
Progreso are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Deportivo Maldonado, L 0-2 @ Wanderers, L 1-2 v Albion FC, W 2-1 @ Danubio.
Defensor Sporting hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Defensor Sporting 1-0 Progreso.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
