Nacional AM defeated Amazonas 2-1 in the Amazonense final, a result broadly consistent with the Lemeister model's pre-match read that gave the home side a 39 per cent chance of victory against 29 per cent for the visitors. The match was decided by a quick second-half response after the visitors had equalised, though the limited statistical data available makes a full numerical assessment difficult. The card count was notably high, with eight yellow cards and two red cards shaping the latter stages of the contest.
The opening goal arrived in the 15th minute when Hernane Brocador found the net for Nacional AM, giving the home side an early advantage they held into half-time. The goal came without an assist in the data, meaning Brocador was the sole credited contributor on the scoreline. Amazonas responded swiftly after the interval, with Marcelo Cirino scoring in the 48th minute to level the contest, again with no assist recorded. The equilibrium lasted only seven minutes, as Renanzinho restored Nacional AM's lead in the 55th minute, a strike that proved decisive and ultimately settled the final.
The disciplinary record tells a story of growing frustration for the visitors. The first yellow cards appeared in the 38th minute, one for each side, suggesting the match was evenly contested at that stage. Further cautions followed for both teams in the 58th minute, just after Renanzinho's goal, and a Nacional AM player received another yellow in the 73rd minute. The real deterioration came in second-half stoppage time, when Amazonas accumulated three yellow cards in quick succession: one in the 93rd minute and two in the 97th minute, the second of which was upgraded to a red card. A further red card was issued to an Amazonas player in the 110th minute, leaving the visitors to play the final stages with nine men. Both sides used five substitutes, but the numerical disadvantage for Amazonas late in the contest made any equalising effort highly unlikely.
Without possession, shot, expected goals or passing figures in the match data, the analysis rests primarily on the goal timeline and the incident record. Nacional AM struck first and regained the lead quickly after falling behind, suggesting an ability to respond to adversity. Amazonas, despite equalising early in the second half, could not hold parity for long, and their discipline unravelled as they pressed for an equaliser. The fact that both red cards came in stoppage time and beyond indicates a match that became increasingly fractious as the clock wound down, with the visitors' urgency perhaps leading to reckless challenges.
The Lemeister model had pre-match reads of 39 per cent for a Nacional AM win and 32 per cent for a draw, with the home side as favourites. The actual 2-1 victory aligns broadly with that projection, though the margin was narrower than the model's projected home goals might have suggested, and the final result did not reflect the potential for a draw that the model saw as a significant possibility.
The result gives Nacional AM the Amazonense title, adding another state championship to their history and providing a reward for their consistent performance throughout the tournament. For Amazonas, the defeat ends a campaign that saw them reach the final, but they will reflect on a performance that started competitively before unravelling in the second half. The indiscipline that saw them finish with nine men will be a particular concern, as it cost them any realistic chance of forcing extra time and left them unable to apply sustained pressure in the closing stages. The final margin of one goal flattered the competitiveness of the contest for the opening hour, but Nacional AM's ability to score early in each half ultimately proved decisive.
