Lens v Toulouse: the model read
Lens meet Toulouse in the Coupe de France semi-finals at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens. The model makes Lens the most likely outcome at 50%, with the full read 50% LEN, 26% draw, 24% TOU.
Lens rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1468. Recent form leans Lens, 68% against 45%. Attacking output favors Lens on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 65%, over 2.5 goals around 80%. Draw no bet leans Lens at 68%; double chance reads Lens or draw 76%, Toulouse or draw 50%.
Lens arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Charleroi, W 4-1 v Boulogne, W 3-1 v Nice, W 4-0 @ Lyon.
Toulouse are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Rodez, W 2-1 v Lyon, W 2-1 @ Strasbourg, D 2-2 v Monaco.
Lens hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lens 4-1 Toulouse.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
