Criciuma secured the Campeonato Catarinense title with a 3-2 victory over Camboriú in the second leg of the final, a contest decided by a flurry of second-half goals and defined by an extraordinary disciplinary record that saw both sides reduced to ten men. The Lemeister model had given the home side a 42% probability of victory, which accurately reflected their status as marginal favourites but did not foresee the extraordinary series of events that unfolded.
Camboriú took the lead in the 14th minute when Wermeson converted a penalty, capitalising on an early Criciuma yellow card for Alisson that had already signalled the home side’s aggressive intent. The visitors’ advantage lasted only nine minutes. Waguininho equalised for Criciuma in the 23rd minute with a normal goal, restoring parity before half-time. Two further yellow cards were issued before the interval, one to each side, setting the tone for a match that would spiral into indiscipline.
The second half erupted within ten minutes. Jhonata Robert put Criciuma ahead in the 55th minute, but Camboriú responded immediately through Mansur in the 59th minute, levelling the scores at 2-2. The match’s decisive moment arrived in the 83rd minute, when Jean Irmer scored what proved to be the winning goal for the home side. By that stage, Criciuma had been playing with ten men since the 50th minute following a red card for Rodrigo, while Camboriú had also been reduced to ten after Hygor received a second yellow card in the 77th minute. J. Macias collected a late caution for the visitors.
The disciplinary record dominated the match narrative. Nine yellow cards and two red cards were issued across the 90 minutes, with seven of the yellows arriving after half-time. Criciuma accumulated six yellows and one red; Camboriú received five yellows and one red. This fragmented any possibility of sustained attacking rhythm, particularly for the visitors, who faced a ten-man Criciuma for 27 minutes between the 50th and 77th minutes but could not establish numerical superiority on the scoresheet.
Without the full statistical breakdown, the flow of play is best assessed through the goal timeline and card pattern. Criciuma scored three goals in the second half, two of them after their red card, which indicates a capacity to absorb pressure and strike on the counter-attack. Camboriú’s single second-half goal came in a four-minute window after falling behind, but they could not sustain momentum through the chaotic final phase of the match.
The Lemeister model’s pre-match projection of a 1-0 home win underestimated the sheer volume of scoring and disciplinary incidents. Criciuma’s 42% chance of victory, while the highest single outcome in the model, did not capture the volatility that would see five goals, two red cards and nine yellows across the 90 minutes. The home side’s resilience in overcoming an early deficit, a red card and a second equaliser will define this final.
The result confirms Criciuma as state champions, having overturned Camboriú’s first-leg or early penalty lead to win the title on aggregate. For Camboriú, the disappointment is acute: they led in the first half, faced a ten-man opposition for over half an hour of normal time, and still conceded three goals. The final will be remembered not for flowing football but for its high-stakes attrition, with both sides pushed to the limit of their discipline and composure.
