AO Itabaiana v Caxias: the model read
AO Itabaiana meet Caxias in the Serie C regular season - 16 at Estadio Etelvino Mendonca, Itabaiana. The model makes Caxias the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 26% AO , 35% draw, 39% CAX.
Caxias rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1546 to 1420. Recent form leans Caxias, 57% against 40%. Attacking output favors Caxias on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 23%, over 2.5 goals around 18%. Draw no bet leans Caxias at 60%; double chance reads AO Itabaiana or draw 61%, Caxias or draw 74%.
AO Itabaiana arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Confiança, W 1-0 v Brusque, W 2-0 @ Amazonas, W 1-0 v Ferroviária.
Caxias are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Botafogo PB, D 0-0 v Floresta, W 1-0 @ Ferroviária, D 1-1 v Anápolis.
AO Itabaiana hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: AO Itabaiana 2-1 Caxias.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
