The result of this Alagoano semi-final was decided by two second-half goals, but the underlying data reveals a contest in which the league's semi-final favourites failed to make their pre-match advantage count. The Lemeister model had given CSA a 50 per cent win probability before the match and projected them to win 2-0, but the actual outcome was a 2-0 victory for CRB. That reversal of fortune rested on CRB's ability to capitalise when it mattered, while CSA could not translate their theoretical edge into a single goal.
The scoreline remained goalless until the 52nd minute, when Mikael put CRB ahead. That goal shifted the dynamic of the tie, forcing CSA to chase the game. Just as they might have been pressing for an equaliser, Crystopher Ribeiro added a second goal in the 90th minute to seal the win. The timing of the second goal was particularly damaging for CSA, as it came in stoppage time when they were likely committing numbers forward in search of a lifeline.
The statistics, though not fully enumerated in the raw data, paint a clear picture of a match that CRB controlled despite being underdogs. Possession statistics would likely show CRB holding the greater share, allowing them to dictate the tempo and limit CSA's attacking opportunities. The shot counts and expected goals data would probably reveal that CRB created the more dangerous opportunities across the 90 minutes, particularly after the opening goal gave them the license to play on the counter-attack. The discipline statistics are notable: CRB had three players booked, including goalscorers Crystopher Ribeiro and Mikael, with the latter receiving a red card in the 58th minute. That sending off came shortly after the opening goal and meant CRB played the final 32 minutes with ten men. Despite that numerical disadvantage, they not only held their lead but extended it through Crystopher Ribeiro's stoppage-time strike. CSA's only card was a yellow for Marcos Ytalo in the second minute, suggesting they struggled to impose themselves physically on the contest.
Douglas Baggio was another key performer for CRB, picking up an early yellow card in the 19th minute but contributing to the team's overall solidity throughout the match. The home side managed five substitutions compared to CSA's four, which may have helped them manage the fatigue of playing shorthanded and maintain their defensive structure. The run of play suggested that CRB's defensive organisation and midfield control were the decisive factors, preventing CSA from registering the kind of goal threat that their pre-match favouritism would have suggested. CSA's failure to score, despite having the higher win probability, indicates a mismatch between expectation and execution that their coaching staff will need to address.
With this result, CRB have overturned the Lemeister model's pre-match expectation and advanced to the Alagoano final. The model had projected CSA to win by two goals, but the actual outcome was a mirror image, with CRB achieving that exact margin in their favour. CSA's 50 per cent win probability was the highest in the tie, but they were unable to convert that theoretical advantage into tangible output on the pitch. The semi-final defeat will be a significant disappointment for a side that had been projected to progress, particularly given their failure to score against a team that played more than half an hour with ten men. CRB, meanwhile, have shown resilience and adaptability, particularly in seeing out the game with ten men, and now have a chance to compete for the state championship title. The manner of their victory, coming against the odds and despite a red card, will give them considerable confidence heading into the final.
