Where the market is wrong on Tartu Welco v Nõmme Kalju II
Tartu Welco meet Nõmme Kalju II in the Esiliiga A regular season - 29 at Holm Jalgpallipark, Tartu.
Tartu Welco rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1400. Recent form leans Tartu Welco, 68% against 23%. Attacking output favors Tartu Welco on expected goals, 2.8 to 1.1 per match.
Tartu Welco arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Nõmme Kalju II, D 0-0 @ FCI Levadia II, D 1-1 @ Tallinna Kalev, L 1-3 v Viimsi.
Nõmme Kalju II are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Tartu Welco, L 1-5 v Flora II, L 0-1 @ Elva, W 2-0 @ FC Tallinn.
Tartu Welco hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 1 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tartu Welco 3-0 Nõmme Kalju II.
The market prices TAR at 78% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 10.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
