Where the market is wrong on Elva v Flora II
Elva meet Flora II in the Esiliiga A regular season - 25 at Nike Arena, Elva.
The baseline ratings are close, 1625 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Elva, 66% against 55%. Attacking output favors Elva on expected goals, 2.0 to 2.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 70%, over 2.5 goals around 75%. Draw no bet leans Elva at 59%; double chance reads Elva or draw 70%, Flora II or draw 57%.
Elva arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Flora II, W 1-0 v Maardu, L 0-1 @ Tallinna Kalev, W 3-0 v Joker.
Flora II are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Elva, W 2-1 v Viimsi, L 1-2 @ Tartu Welco, W 3-0 v Nõmme Kalju II.
Flora II hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Elva 0-0 Flora II.
The market prices ELV at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
