LDU de Quito overturned a half-time deficit and scored twice in the second period to claim a 2-1 victory over Tecnico Universitario, a result that the Lemeister model had viewed as a close contest in which LDU de Quito held a narrow 36 per cent win probability. The home side's superior control of the ball and greater volume of opportunities in front of goal were ultimately decisive, though the result also rested on a late own goal.
Tecnico Universitario opened the scoring in first-half stoppage time through Bagner Delgado, who converted from a pass by L. Estupinan. Delgado, who earned a match rating of 7.9, was the visitor's best performer on the night. The goal gave the away side a lead they would hold until the 50th minute, when Michael Estrada equalised for LDU de Quito with a finish assisted by J. Quintero. Estrada also posted a rating of 7.9, matching Delgado's performance level and underlining his decisive contribution.
The winning goal arrived in the 90th minute, when Andres Copete of Tecnico Universitario turned the ball into his own net. It was a harsh conclusion for the visiting side, who had defended stubbornly for much of the second half and who had already been reduced to 10 men. Wagner Caicedo received a second yellow card in the 72nd minute, following earlier bookings for Luis Estupiñan, Jonathan Majao and Caicedo himself, leaving Tecnico with a numerical disadvantage for the final 18 minutes of normal time plus stoppages. LDU de Quito also accumulated yellow cards for Jesús Pretell and Fernando Cornejo, but they were not subject to a dismissal.
The statistics paint a clear picture of LDU de Quito's dominance. They registered the greater share of possession and generated more shots and shots on target than their opponents, though with fewer detailed shot figures available than expected goals data, the fundamental measure of chance quality pointed to a deserved home win. The Lemeister model had projected a home victory by one goal, and the final scoreline aligned exactly with that expectation, albeit via an own goal rather than a third strike from open play.
Among the other high-rated performers, Yerlin Quinonez of LDU de Quito earned a 7.7 rating, while Gian Franco Allala, Ricardo Adé and Fernando Cornejo each posted 7.3. Their collective defensive solidity and ball retention helped LDU de Quito dominate the second half, particularly after the red card tipped the balance further in their favour. Tecnico Universitario, for all their early defensive organisation and Delgado's sharp finishing, could not withstand sustained pressure from a superior possession side.
The result keeps LDU de Quito firmly in the upper half of the Liga Pro table as the regular season approaches its closing stages. For Tecnico Universitario, the defeat, the own goal and the red card represent a damaging evening, but the performance of Bagner Delgado offers some encouragement. With the title race tightening, LDU de Quito will need more such control and efficiency in the final third to maintain their momentum.
