Cusco left Estadio 25 de Noviembre with a 2-1 victory over UCV Moquegua, a result that the data suggests was built on superior efficiency in front of goal and a narrow edge in territorial control. The visitors created higher-quality chances, reflected in an expected goals figure of 1.6 against the home side's 1.0, and made that advantage count with two well-timed strikes. The Lemeister model had given UCV Moquegua a 37 per cent chance of victory and this result, while not a major deviation, saw the forecasted draw and away win probabilities combined outweigh the home favourite.
J. Tevez opened the scoring for Cusco in the 22nd minute, his goal assisted by J. Manzaneda. It was a strike that rewarded Cusco's early composure; they held 52 per cent of possession in the first half and forced the issue from inside the box, where they would register eight of their 11 total shots across the match. UCV Moquegua responded after the interval, E. Lastre equalising in the 65th minute with an unassisted effort. The home side had mustered five shots inside the box but their overall shot count of 13, while higher than Cusco's 11, produced only four on target. The decisive moment came in the 90th minute when F. Callejo struck to claim all three points for the visitors.
The statistical story is one of marginal territorial dominance matched by clear finishing superiority. Cusco completed 335 passes at a 79 per cent accuracy rate, compared with UCV Moquegua's 302 passes at 78 per cent, a slender but consistent advantage in ball circulation. The visitors also forced the home goalkeeper into five saves, while their own shot-stopper was required to make only three. Cusco's discipline was tested, with Aldair Fuentes, Pedro Diaz and Diego Soto all booked, while UCV Moquegua's Ricardo Chipao and Jose Granda also went into the referee's notebook. The home side made five substitutions to Cusco's two, a sign of late urgency that could not prevent the defeat.
J. Tevez, scorer of the opening goal, was the standout performer in terms of direct contribution, while F. Callejo's late winner will carry the match-winning narrative. No player ratings were provided in the data, so the assessment rests on the raw contributions: J. Manzaneda's assist for the first goal and the timely interventions from both goalscorers. For UCV Moquegua, E. Lastre's equaliser brought them back into the contest, but neither side can point to a single dominant individual showing based on the available numbers.
The result leaves Cusco with three points on the road in the Apertura - 8 round, strengthening their position in the mid-table mix of the Primera División. For UCV Moquegua, it is a home defeat that checks their momentum after a competitive performance that, according to the expected goals data, probably deserved a share of the spoils. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection had the home side as marginal favourites, but the away victory was always within the range of plausible outcomes given the narrow probabilistic spread.
