Alianza Valledupar v Jaguares: the model read
Alianza Valledupar meet Jaguares in the Primera A apertura - 12 at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar. The model makes Alianza Valledupar the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% ALI, 33% draw, 31% JAG.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Alianza Valledupar, 45% against 28%. Attacking output favors Jaguares on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 32%. Draw no bet leans Alianza Valledupar at 54%; double chance reads Alianza Valledupar or draw 69%, Jaguares or draw 63%.
Alianza Valledupar arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Bucaramanga, L 0-1 @ Deportivo Cali, W 3-0 v Real Santander, D 1-1 @ Popayan.
Jaguares are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Deportivo Cali, L 0-1 @ Deportivo Pereira, W 3-0 v Ind. Yumbo, D 0-0 @ Águilas Doradas.
Alianza Valledupar hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Alianza Valledupar 1-0 Jaguares.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
