Where the market is wrong on Nueva Chicago v Patronato
Nueva Chicago meet Patronato in the Primera Nacional regular season - 30 at Estadio Nueva Chicago, Buenos Aires.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Patronato, 45% against 35%. Attacking output favors Patronato on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.6 per match.
Nueva Chicago arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Almagro, D 1-1 v Patronato, L 0-1 @ Colegiales, W 1-0 v Quilmes.
Patronato are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v San Martin S.J., D 1-1 @ Nueva Chicago, D 0-0 v Temperley, D 0-0 @ Deportivo Maipu.
The market prices NUE at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Patronato: a 18.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
