Where the market is wrong on San Telmo v Deportivo Moron
San Telmo meet Deportivo Moron in the Primera Nacional regular season - 26 at Estadio Osvaldo Baletto, Dock Sud.
Deportivo Moron rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1408. Recent form leans Deportivo Moron, 60% against 38%. Attacking output favors Deportivo Moron on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 24%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Deportivo Moron at 64%; double chance reads San Telmo or draw 57%, Deportivo Moron or draw 76%.
San Telmo arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Deportivo Moron, L 0-3 @ Quilmes, L 0-1 @ Colon Santa Fe, W 1-0 v San Miguel.
Deportivo Moron are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 12 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ San Telmo, W 2-0 v Almagro, W 4-1 v Acassuso, L 0-2 @ Chaco For Ever.
Deportivo Moron hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: San Telmo 2-2 Deportivo Moron.
The market prices SAN at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on Deportivo Moron: a 6.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 69 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
