Almirante Brown v CA Estudiantes

Almirante Brown meet CA Estudiantes in the Primera Nacional regular season - 21 at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento, Isidro Casanova. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 30% ALM, 39% draw, 31% CA .

The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 57%. Attacking output favors CA Estudiantes on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 12%, over 2.5 goals around 6%. Draw no bet leans CA Estudiantes at 51%; double chance reads Almirante Brown or draw 69%, CA Estudiantes or draw 70%.

Almirante Brown arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v CA Estudiantes, D 1-1 @ All Boys, W 1-0 v Los Andes, W 3-1 v Atletico Mitre.

CA Estudiantes are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Almirante Brown, W 3-0 v Atletico Mitre, D 1-1 v Racing Cordoba, W 2-1 @ Ciudad de Bolívar.

The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Almirante Brown 0-0 CA Estudiantes.

The market prices ALM at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.