Where the market is wrong on Ilves v HJK Helsinki
Ilves meet HJK Helsinki in the Veikkausliiga regular season - 22 at Tammela Stadium, Tampere.
HJK Helsinki rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1661 to 1500. Recent form leans HJK Helsinki, 70% against 48%. Attacking output favors HJK Helsinki on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.6 per match.
Ilves arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v HJK Helsinki, L 0-1 v VPS, L 2-3 @ Gnistan, D 1-1 v HNK Rijeka.
HJK Helsinki are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Ilves, L 2-3 v Gnistan, W 3-0 v FF Jaro, L 0-2 @ Motherwell.
Ilves hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ilves 1-2 HJK Helsinki.
The market prices ILV at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
