Where the market is wrong on Valerenga v Ham-Kam
Valerenga meet Ham-Kam in the Eliteserien regular season - 16 at Intility Arena, Oslo. The model makes Valerenga the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% VAL, 28% draw, 35% HAM.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 53%. Attacking output favors Valerenga on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 77%. Draw no bet leans Valerenga at 51%; double chance reads Valerenga or draw 65%, Ham-Kam or draw 63%.
Valerenga arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Brann, W 6-1 v Aalesund, L 0-4 @ Tromso, W 3-1 v Fredrikstad.
Ham-Kam are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Sarpsborg 08 FF, L 0-3 @ Bodo/Glimt, L 1-4 v Tromso, D 2-2 @ Sandefjord.
Ham-Kam hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ham-Kam 1-0 Valerenga.
The market prices VAL at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Ham-Kam: a 15.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
