Where the market is wrong on Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras meet Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A regular season - 24 at Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo.
Palmeiras rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1480. Recent form leans Palmeiras, 68% against 47%. Attacking output favors Palmeiras on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 43%, over 2.5 goals around 56%. Draw no bet leans Palmeiras at 68%; double chance reads Palmeiras or draw 77%, Vasco DA Gama or draw 51%.
Palmeiras arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Santos, W 4-1 v Vasco DA Gama, W 1-0 @ Cerro Porteno, L 2-3 @ Fluminense.
Vasco DA Gama are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Vitoria, L 1-4 @ Palmeiras, W 4-1 @ Olimpia, L 0-3 v Santos.
Palmeiras hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Palmeiras 4-1 Vasco DA Gama.
The market prices PAL at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Vasco DA Gama: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
