Fluminense v Bahia

Fluminense meet Bahia in the Serie A regular season - 21. The model makes Fluminense the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% FLU, 30% draw, 31% BAH.

The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Fluminense, 57% against 48%. Attacking output favors Fluminense on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.5 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 57%. Draw no bet leans Fluminense at 55%; double chance reads Fluminense or draw 69%, Bahia or draw 61%.

Fluminense arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 11 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Gremio, D 1-1 v RB Bragantino, W 2-0 v Bahia, W 6-1 v Nova Iguaçu.

Bahia are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Corinthians, D 1-1 @ Atletico-MG, W 2-0 v Chapecoense-sc, L 0-2 @ Fluminense.

Fluminense hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fluminense 2-0 Bahia.

The market prices FLU at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Bahia: a 9.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.