Where the market is wrong on Chicago Fire v Inter Miami
Chicago Fire meet Inter Miami in the Major League Soccer regular season - 24 at Soldier Field, Chicago.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 63%. Attacking output favors Inter Miami on expected goals, 2.7 to 2.0 per match.
Chicago Fire arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Seattle Sounders, L 1-2 @ Monterrey, D 1-1 @ New York Red Bulls, W 2-1 @ Orlando City SC.
Inter Miami are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 13 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 7-1 v CF Montreal, L 1-2 v Toronto FC, D 2-2 @ Philadelphia Union, L 1-4 @ Nashville SC.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Inter Miami 3-2 Chicago Fire.
The market prices CHI at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
