Where the market is wrong on FC Dallas v Sporting Kansas City
FC Dallas meet Sporting Kansas City in the Major League Soccer regular season - 23 at Toyota Stadium, Frisco.
FC Dallas rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1400. Recent form leans FC Dallas, 57% against 25%. Attacking output favors FC Dallas on expected goals, 1.8 to 0.9 per match.
FC Dallas arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ St. Louis City, L 0-5 @ Vancouver Whitecaps, W 4-3 @ Real Salt Lake, W 2-1 @ Austin.
Sporting Kansas City are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 2 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Vancouver Whitecaps, L 1-2 @ Atlanta United FC, D 1-1 v St. Louis City, L 0-2 @ Colorado Rapids.
FC Dallas hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Sporting Kansas City 2-4 FC Dallas.
The market prices FC at 64% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
