Where the market is wrong on New York Red Bulls v Charlotte
New York Red Bulls meet Charlotte in the Major League Soccer regular season - 19 at Sports Illustrated Stadium, undefined. The model makes Charlotte the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 29% NEW, 27% draw, 44% CHA.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1528, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 53%. Attacking output favors Charlotte on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 80%, over 2.5 goals around 86%. Draw no bet leans Charlotte at 60%; double chance reads New York Red Bulls or draw 56%, Charlotte or draw 71%.
New York Red Bulls arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Philadelphia Union, W 2-1 @ Sporting Kansas City, D 1-1 v New York City FC, W 3-2 v Columbus Crew.
Charlotte are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Atlanta United FC, W 1-0 v New England Revolution, W 3-1 v Toronto FC, L 0-1 v New York City FC.
New York Red Bulls hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Charlotte 6-1 New York Red Bulls.
The market prices NEW at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Charlotte: a 12.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
